“I believe it will take at least five years for 50 percent of adults in the U.S. market to replace their wallets with mobile payment mechanisms,” predicts Patrick Moorhead, a veteran tech industry analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy.

Will Phones Replace Wallets by 2021?

“The mobile payment market is very nascent but growing very quickly,” Moorhead said. According to Apple, Apple Pay app developers are seeing a more-than-double increase in checkout rates. Recent data found that while mobile wallet users still aren’t a majority, they have doubled since 2013.